The collapse of the three-party coalition has sparked intense debate, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats and Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats at the forefront. But they are not alone. The Greens, the pro-business Free Democrats, and the hard-right Alternative for Germany are all key players in this evolving race. Economic recovery, welfare reform, and Germany’s global role dominate the conversation. This election will shape not only Germany’s domestic future but also Europe’s broader political and economic landscape. With political fragmentation on the rise, coalition-building will be critical. The results will set the course for the years ahead.
On 23 February 2025, almost 60 million German voters will elect a new parliament in snap elections after the collapse of the governing coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) with the Greens (B90/Die Grünen) and the Liberals (FDP) in November 2024. A change of government with the participation of the Conservatives (CDU/CSU) and their lead candidate for Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, seems likely. In addition, a spin-off of the left party (BSW) will be a new party on the ballot, which has already entered government coalitions in two federal states. Polls show that the AfD will likely emerge from the elections as the strongest opposition party. All other parties have indicated not to enter a coalition with the right-wing party. Irrespective of who wins, a change in the political majorities in Germany is to be expected, which will also have an impact on European and international politics. Freshfields has the latest developments and positioning in view.
German federal election insights
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